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Sabah vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Sabah

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Karvan

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.7% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-10.4%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.6%1-11.7%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.4%2-13.6%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-14.9%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-040.5%4+-115.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.7% 90.1% 1.11 -12.6%

Draw 16.4% 14.8% 6.75 +10.7%

Away win 4.9% 5.3% 19.00 -6.9%

Over 2.5 68.1% 74.1% 1.35 -8.1%

Over 3.5 65.9% 54.1% 1.85 +21.9%

BTTS 39.6% 45.5% 2.20 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 79% / xG 4.1-0.4 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 13.3%

#2 3–0 12.9%

#3 5–0 11.0%

#4 2–0✓ 9.4%

#5 4–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah4.1

Karvan0.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 65.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH · PPG 2.36

KARVAN · PPG 0.46

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.46) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sabah (H) 78.7%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -12.6%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +10.7%

Karvan (A) 4.9%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah face Karvan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah a 79% chance, the draw 16% and Karvan 5%, so Sabah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Sabah and 0.4 for Karvan (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.46 for Karvan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Sabah vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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