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Fiorentina U20 vs Monza U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 15:00

Fiorentina U20

PPG 2.18 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monza U20

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.18) > Away GOOD (1.59)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.2%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-111.0%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% — — —

Draw 28.6% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.2% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 47% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina U201.8

Monza U200.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA U20 · PPG 2.18

MONZA U20 · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.18) > Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina U20 (H) 46.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Monza U20 (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina U20 face Monza U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina U20 a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Monza U20 25%, so Fiorentina U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fiorentina U20 and 0.9 for Monza U20 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina U20 are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.59 for Monza U20. This match finished 3-1.

Fiorentina U20 vs Monza U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 Predictions