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Gagra vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 15:00

Gagra

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Meshakhte

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-113.2%0-24.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.2%2-15.5%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 59.9% 1.67 -35.0%

Draw 33.6% 30.8% 3.25 +9.2%

Away win 27.5% 22.2% 4.50 +23.8%

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 6.7% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 54.1% 1.85 -26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.6%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.1%

#2 1–0 20.1%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra0.9

Meshakhte0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 6.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 0.25

MESHAKHTE · PPG 1.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 38.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -35.0%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +9.2%

Meshakhte (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Meshakhte in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Meshakhte 28%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gagra and 0.6 for Meshakhte (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Meshakhte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Gagra vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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