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Turan vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Turan

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Zira

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.7%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 45.5% 2.20 -0.3%

Draw 30.4% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -19.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.8% 2.45 -6.9%

Over 3.5 13.3% 22.2% 4.50 -40.2%

BTTS 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1✓ 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turan1.3

Zira0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TURAN · PPG 2.00

ZIRA · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Turan (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Zira (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turan face Zira in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turan a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Zira 24%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Turan and 0.7 for Zira (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.69 for Zira. This match finished 1-1.

Turan vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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