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Bologna U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 13:00

Bologna U20

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Genoa U20

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.3%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 54.1% 1.85 -16.4%

Draw 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -1.3%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 23.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0✓ 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna U201.5

Genoa U201.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA U20 · PPG 1.35

GENOA U20 · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna U20 (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.3%

Genoa U20 (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna U20 face Genoa U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna U20 a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Genoa U20 25%, so Bologna U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bologna U20 and 1.0 for Genoa U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna U20 are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.35 for Genoa U20. This match finished 1-0.

Bologna U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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