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Fluminense vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:30

Fluminense

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chapecoense

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.4%1-13.0%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.2%2-15.7%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-17.2%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.9%4+-118.0%4+-26.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.2% 77.5% 1.29 -5.6%

Draw 20.0% 20.0% 5.00 0.0%

Away win 6.8% 9.3% 10.75 -26.9%

Over 2.5 68.1% 59.9% 1.67 +13.7%

Over 3.5 65.1% 37.0% 2.70 +75.8%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 73% / xG 3.8-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.3%

#2 4–0 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 5–0 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense3.8

Chapecoense0.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 65.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.50

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 73.2%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV 0.0%

Chapecoense (A) 6.8%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Chapecoense 7%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Fluminense and 0.7 for Chapecoense (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +75.8%.

Fluminense vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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