Fluminense vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 13 Estádio do Maracanã· Rio de Janeiro Sunday, April 26, 2026 23:30

Fluminense PPG 2.50

VS PENDING

Chapecoense PPG 0.25

Over3.5· +75.8% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Chapecoense 7%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Fluminense and 0.7 for Chapecoense (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +75.8%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 73.2%

Odds: 1.29 EV: -5.6%

Draw 20.0%

Odds: 5.00 EV: 0.0%

Away 6.8%

Odds: 10.75 EV: -26.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.1% Odds: 1.67 +13.7%

Over 3.5 65.1% Odds: 2.70 +75.8%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.05 +7.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0

2nd 4-0

3rd 2-0

4th 5-0

5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Fluminense

3.76

Chapecoense

0.70

Model SuggestionHome -5.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-5.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 48%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 56% (27 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus