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Atletico MG vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:30

Atletico MG

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

Flamengo

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.9%0-26.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.1%1-111.9%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 26.3% 3.80 +40.2%

Draw 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -2.8%

Away win 33.2% 49.5% 2.02 -32.9%

Over 2.5 52.2% 47.6% 2.10 +9.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% 26.7% 3.75 +15.5%

BTTS 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico MG1.3

Flamengo1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MG · PPG 2.20

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico MG (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +40.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.8%

Flamengo (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Flamengo 33%, so Atletico MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico MG and 1.5 for Flamengo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.2%.

Atletico MG vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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