Atletico MG vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 13 Arena MRV· Belo Horizonte Sunday, April 26, 2026 23:30

Atletico MG PPG 2.20

VS PENDING

Flamengo PPG 1.67

Home· +40.2% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Flamengo 33%, so Atletico MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico MG and 1.5 for Flamengo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.2%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +40.2%

Draw 29.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -2.8%

Away 33.2%

Odds: 2.02 EV: -32.9%

Model lean: BTTS

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.2% Odds: 2.10 +9.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% Odds: 3.75 +15.5%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.83 +7.0%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 1-2

3rd 2-1

4th 0-0

5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico MG

1.33

Flamengo

1.47

Model SuggestionBTTS +7.0% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+40.2%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.67)