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San Lorenzo vs Rubio Nu Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:00

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Rubio Nu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-114.1%0-27.2%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.3%2-16.5%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 37.0% 2.70 -1.5%

Draw 33.0% 33.6% 2.98 -1.7%

Away win 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.6% 2.35 -10.7%

Over 3.5 13.9% 22.2% 4.50 -37.5%

BTTS 49.5% 51.8% 1.93 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 14.1%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo1.0

Rubio Nu1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.75

RUBIO NU · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -1.5%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -1.7%

Rubio Nu (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Rubio Nu in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Rubio Nu 31%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Lorenzo and 1.0 for Rubio Nu (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Rubio Nu. This match finished 0-1.

San Lorenzo vs Rubio Nu Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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