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Bragantino vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:30

Bragantino

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Palmeiras

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.2%0-27.2%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.6%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 33.8% 2.96 +5.7%

Draw 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away win 32.6% 42.0% 2.38 -22.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +1.3%

BTTS 57.9% 55.6% 1.80 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1✓ 10.2%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bragantino1.2

Palmeiras1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.67

PALMEIRAS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Bragantino (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +5.7%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.4%

Palmeiras (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bragantino face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bragantino a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Palmeiras 33%, so Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bragantino and 1.4 for Palmeiras (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bragantino are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Bragantino vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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