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Athletico PR vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:30

Athletico PR

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vitoria

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.1%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-17.4%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.2%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-17.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 61.3% 1.63 +0.6%

Draw 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

Away win 15.6% 17.2% 5.80 -9.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 45.5% 2.20 +29.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 23.8% 4.20 +54.6%

BTTS 51.0% 47.6% 2.10 +7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.0%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletico PR2.4

Vitoria0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 2.50

VITORIA · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Athletico PR (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +0.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.5%

Vitoria (A) 15.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletico PR face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletico PR a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Vitoria 16%, so Athletico PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Athletico PR and 0.7 for Vitoria (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletico PR are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.40 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Athletico PR vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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