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Xelaju vs Achuapa Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 20 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 03:00

Xelaju

PPG 2.56 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Achuapa

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-110.9%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 82.0% 1.22 -45.1%

Draw 29.9% 21.1% 4.75 +42.0%

Away win 25.0% 7.1% 14.00 +250.0%

Over 2.5 32.7% 55.6% 1.80 -41.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% 33.3% 3.00 -56.5%

BTTS 38.9% 40.8% 2.45 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.9%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xelaju1.2

Achuapa0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

XELAJU · PPG 2.56

ACHUAPA · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

Xelaju (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -45.1%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +42.0%

Achuapa (A) 25.0%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +250.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xelaju face Achuapa in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xelaju a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Achuapa 25%, so Xelaju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Xelaju and 0.8 for Achuapa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xelaju are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.56 for Achuapa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +250.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Xelaju vs Achuapa Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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