Xelaju vs Achuapa Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 20 Estadio Mario Camposeco· Quetzaltenango Friday, April 17, 2026 03:00

Xelaju PPG 2.56

3-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Achuapa PPG 0.56

Away· +250.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Xelaju face Achuapa in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xelaju a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Achuapa 25%, so Xelaju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Xelaju and 0.8 for Achuapa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xelaju are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.56 for Achuapa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +250.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.0%

Odds: 1.22 EV: -45.1%

Draw 29.9%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +42.0%

Away 25.0%

Odds: 14.00 EV: +250.0%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 32.7% Odds: 1.80 -41.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% Odds: 3.00 -56.5%

BTTS 38.9% Odds: 2.45 -4.7%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Xelaju

1.20

Achuapa

0.81

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=45.0%