Puntarenas vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 18 Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy· Puntarenas Sunday, April 26, 2026 22:00

Puntarenas PPG 1.00

1-3 MISS

Saprissa PPG 1.75

Over3.5· +18.0% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Puntarenas face Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puntarenas a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Saprissa 40%, so Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Puntarenas and 1.7 for Saprissa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puntarenas are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.8%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +8.8%

Draw 29.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -2.8%

Away 40.3%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -21.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.95 +15.0%

Over 3.5 34.2% Odds: 3.45 +18.0%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.75 +2.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Puntarenas

1.25

Saprissa

1.70

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +15.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+18.0%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)