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Puntarenas vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 22:00

Puntarenas

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Saprissa

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.9%0-27.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 27.4% 3.65 +8.8%

Draw 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -2.8%

Away win 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% 51.3% 1.95 +15.0%

Over 3.5 34.2% 29.0% 3.45 +18.0%

BTTS 58.5% 57.1% 1.75 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puntarenas1.3

Saprissa1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PUNTARENAS · PPG 1.00

SAPRISSA · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Puntarenas (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +8.8%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.8%

Saprissa (A) 40.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puntarenas face Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puntarenas a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Saprissa 40%, so Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Puntarenas and 1.7 for Saprissa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puntarenas are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Puntarenas vs Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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