M. Liberia vs Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 18 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno· Liberia Sunday, April 26, 2026 22:00

M. Liberia PPG 2.00

2-1 HIT CS4

Alajuelense PPG 1.25

Home· +49.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Liberia face Alajuelense in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Liberia a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Alajuelense 25%, so M. Liberia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for M. Liberia and 1.0 for Alajuelense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Liberia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Alajuelense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.4%

Odds: 3.30 EV: +49.8%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -8.2%

Away 25.0%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -47.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 24.3% Odds: 3.85 -6.5%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.83 -3.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

M. Liberia

1.50

Alajuelense

1.00

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+49.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)