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M. Liberia vs Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 22:00

M. Liberia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alajuelense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.2%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.3%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 30.3% 3.30 +49.8%

Draw 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.2%

Away win 25.0% 47.6% 2.10 -47.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–1✓ 9.2%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Liberia1.5

Alajuelense1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

M. LIBERIA · PPG 2.00

ALAJUELENSE · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

M. Liberia (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +49.8%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.2%

Alajuelense (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Liberia face Alajuelense in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Liberia a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Alajuelense 25%, so M. Liberia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for M. Liberia and 1.0 for Alajuelense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Liberia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Alajuelense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 2-1.

M. Liberia vs Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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