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Herediano vs Sporting SJ Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 02:00

Herediano

PPG 2.63 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sporting SJ

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-13.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.4%1-16.7%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.8%2-16.8%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.8%3-14.7%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-13.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 61.7% 1.62 +6.3%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -11.6%

Away win 9.5% 20.0% 5.00 -52.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.8% 1.93 -3.5%

Over 3.5 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -27.9%

BTTS 39.6% 54.6% 1.83 -27.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.4 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.8%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 3–0 12.8%

#4 0–0✓ 9.0%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herediano2.0

Sporting SJ0.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEREDIANO · PPG 2.63

SPORTING SJ · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.63), Away GOOD (1.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Herediano (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +6.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.6%

Sporting SJ (A) 9.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herediano face Sporting SJ in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herediano a 66% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting SJ 10%, so Herediano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Herediano and 0.4 for Sporting SJ (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herediano are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 1.75 for Sporting SJ. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Herediano vs Sporting SJ Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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