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Guadalupe vs Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 22:00

Guadalupe

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cartagines

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-112.0%0-28.8%0-34.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.5%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.4%2-16.5%2-24.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 21.7% 4.60 +31.1%

Draw 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

Away win 39.2% 57.8% 1.73 -32.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalupe1.0

Cartagines1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALUPE · PPG 1.25

CARTAGINES · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Guadalupe (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +31.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.6%

Cartagines (A) 39.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalupe face Cartagines in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalupe a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Cartagines 39%, so Cartagines are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guadalupe and 1.5 for Cartagines (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalupe are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Cartagines. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 0-5.

Guadalupe vs Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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