Guadalupe vs Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 18 Estadio Coyella Fonseca Sunday, April 26, 2026 22:00

Guadalupe PPG 1.25

0-5 MISS

Cartagines PPG 1.00

Home· +31.1% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalupe face Cartagines in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalupe a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Cartagines 39%, so Cartagines are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guadalupe and 1.5 for Cartagines (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalupe are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Cartagines. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 0-5.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.5%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +31.1%

Draw 32.3%

Odds: 3.30 EV: +6.6%

Away 39.2%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -32.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 24.3% Odds: 3.60 -12.5%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.85 -2.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Guadalupe

1.04

Cartagines

1.46

Model SuggestionBTTS -2.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -2.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+31.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)