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2 de Mayo vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:45

2 de Mayo

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Guarani

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-115.0%0-211.4%0-35.8%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.8%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.1%2-14.7%2-23.6%2-31.8%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.2%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -11.6%

Draw 29.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.5%

Away win 44.0% 46.3% 2.16 -5.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -14.3%

BTTS 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.8%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 15.0%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

2 de Mayo0.8

Guarani1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

2 DE MAYO · PPG 0.75

GUARANI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

2 de Mayo (H) 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.6%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.5%

Guarani (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

2 de Mayo face Guarani in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 2 de Mayo a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Guarani 44%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for 2 de Mayo and 1.5 for Guarani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 2 de Mayo are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-2.

2 de Mayo vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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