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Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Alianza Lima

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-122.4%0-214.1%0-35.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-110.5%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-01.9%2-12.4%2-21.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.5% 17.5% 5.70 -11.7%

Draw 33.7% 30.8% 3.25 +9.5%

Away win 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Over 2.5 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Over 3.5 9.7% 21.1% 4.75 -53.9%

BTTS 39.6% 45.5% 2.20 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob39.6%

A 51% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 22.4%

#2 0–0 17.8%

#3 0–2 14.1%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau0.5

Alianza Lima1.3

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.60

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 15.5%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +9.5%

Alianza Lima (A) 50.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 16% chance, the draw 34% and Alianza Lima 51%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Atletico Grau and 1.3 for Alianza Lima (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.83 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions