Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Tips

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Peru - Primera División Apertura - 12 Estadio Campeones del 36· Sullana Sunday, April 26, 2026 20:30

Atletico Grau PPG 1.60

0-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Alianza Lima PPG 1.83

Draw· +9.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 15.5%

Odds: 5.70 EV: -11.7%

Draw 33.7%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +9.5%

Away 50.8%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -13.6%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.9% Odds: 2.45 -7.1%

Over 3.5 9.7% Odds: 4.75 -53.9%

BTTS 39.6% Odds: 2.20 -12.9%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Grau

0.47

Alianza Lima

1.26

Model SuggestionAway -13.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -13.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+9.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.83)