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Harbour View vs Montego Bay Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Harbour View

PPG 1.17 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Montego Bay

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.2%0-26.6%0-35.6%0-4+6.5%1 1-02.8%1-17.0%1-28.9%1-37.5%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.9%2-14.7%2-26.0%2-35.1%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.8%3-12.1%3-22.7%3-32.3%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 52.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob58.5%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harbour View1.4

Montego Bay2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HARBOUR VIEW · PPG 1.17

MONTEGO BAY · PPG 1.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.61)

Win probability 1X2

Harbour View (H) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montego Bay (A) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harbour View face Montego Bay in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harbour View a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Montego Bay 52%, so Montego Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Harbour View and 2.5 for Montego Bay (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harbour View are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.61 for Montego Bay. This match finished 4-3.

Harbour View vs Montego Bay Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions