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Chapelton vs Spanish Town P. Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Chapelton

PPG 1.41 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Spanish Town P.

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.41), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.2%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-15.8%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.5%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.8%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-18.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.8% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 9.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.7% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob49.5%

H 69% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 4–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapelton2.7

Spanish Town P.0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPELTON · PPG 1.41

SPANISH TOWN P. · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.41), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chapelton (H) 68.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spanish Town P. (A) 9.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapelton face Spanish Town P. in Jamaica - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapelton a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Spanish Town P. 9%, so Chapelton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Chapelton and 0.5 for Spanish Town P. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapelton are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.44 for Spanish Town P.. This match finished 6-2.

Chapelton vs Spanish Town P. Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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