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Central Norte vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:00

Central Norte

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · DRAW

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Draw

Model probability 71.3% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+86.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-061.1%0-116.4%0-22.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.6%1-13.7%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-01.5%2-10.4%2-20.1%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.6% 46.5% 2.15 -77.2%

Draw 71.3% 38.2% 2.62 +86.8%

Away win 18.1% 25.0% 4.00 -27.6%

Over 2.5 0.0% 30.8% 3.25 -100.0%

Over 3.5 0.2% — — —

BTTS 0.0% 40.8% 2.45 -100.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.2 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob0.0%

D 71% / xG 0.2-0.3 / U2.5 0% / NoBTTS 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 61.1%

#2 0–1✓ 16.4%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 3.7%

#5 0–2 2.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Norte0.2

Ciudad Bolivar0.3

COMBINED 0.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 0.0% · O3.5 PROB 0.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.67

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Central Norte (H) 10.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -77.2%

Draw 71.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +86.8%

Ciudad Bolivar (A) 18.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Norte face Ciudad Bolivar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Norte a 11% chance, the draw 71% and Ciudad Bolivar 18%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.2 for Central Norte and 0.3 for Ciudad Bolivar (0.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 0% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Norte are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for Ciudad Bolivar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +86.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Central Norte vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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