Today / Chile - Primera B / Cobreloa vs San Luis

Cobreloa vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

Cobreloa

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Luis

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+15.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-15.4%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.6%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.4%4+-112.2%4+-24.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 59.9% 1.67 +15.1%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -21.2%

Away win 9.5% 22.7% 4.40 -58.2%

Over 2.5 60.5% 56.5% 1.77 +7.1%

Over 3.5 50.8% 33.9% 2.95 +49.9%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 69% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 3–1✓ 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa3.0

San Luis0.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.50

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +15.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -21.2%

San Luis (A) 9.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -58.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face San Luis in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 69% chance, the draw 22% and San Luis 10%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Cobreloa and 0.7 for San Luis (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.50 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Cobreloa vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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