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Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

Gremio

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Coritiba

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.4%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.4%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 51.0% 1.96 -18.9%

Draw 30.4% 30.8% 3.25 -1.2%

Away win 28.2% 25.0% 4.00 +12.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 26.3% 23.8% 4.20 +10.5%

BTTS 57.8% 51.8% 1.93 +11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–0✓ 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.5

Coritiba1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 2.20

CORITIBA · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -18.9%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.2%

Coritiba (A) 28.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Coritiba 28%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gremio and 1.1 for Coritiba (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.83 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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