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Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

Corinthians

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Vasco da Gama

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-112.2%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.4%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.7%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Draw 32.7% 30.8% 3.25 +6.3%

Away win 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +3.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 43.5% 2.30 +2.1%

Over 3.5 14.9% 23.1% 4.33 -35.5%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0✓ 14.4%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.1

Vasco da Gama0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 0.83

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.3%

Vasco da Gama (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Vasco da Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Vasco da Gama 30%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Corinthians and 0.9 for Vasco da Gama (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.60 for Vasco da Gama. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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