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D. Madryn vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

D. Madryn

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. de Belgrano

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-16.7%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.8%1-110.3%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.1%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-14.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Draw 30.2% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

Away win 17.1% 25.6% 3.90 -33.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 33.3% 3.00 +33.2%

Over 3.5 15.1% — — —

BTTS 48.3% 42.6% 2.35 +13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 2–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Madryn1.5

D. de Belgrano0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MADRYN · PPG 2.00

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. Madryn (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +10.7%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.5%

D. de Belgrano (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Madryn face D. de Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Madryn a 53% chance, the draw 30% and D. de Belgrano 17%, so D. Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for D. Madryn and 0.5 for D. de Belgrano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Madryn are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for D. de Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Madryn vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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