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Agropecuario vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

SM Tucuman

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-117.4%0-29.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.4%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.6%2-14.8%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 40.8% 2.45 -26.0%

Draw 34.3% 37.0% 2.70 -7.4%

Away win 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 34.7% 2.88 +9.4%

Over 3.5 10.8% — — —

BTTS 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario0.7

SM Tucuman1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.20

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -26.0%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.4%

SM Tucuman (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 30% chance, the draw 34% and SM Tucuman 36%, so SM Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Agropecuario and 1.1 for SM Tucuman (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Agropecuario vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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