Agropecuario vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 11 Ofelia Rosenzuaig· Buenos Aires Sunday, April 26, 2026 19:00

Agropecuario PPG 1.20

2-0 MISS

SM Tucuman PPG 2.00

Away· +10.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 30% chance, the draw 34% and SM Tucuman 36%, so SM Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Agropecuario and 1.1 for SM Tucuman (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for SM Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 30.2%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -26.0%

Draw 34.3%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -7.4%

Away 35.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +10.1%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: 2.88 +9.4%

Over 3.5 10.8% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.5% Odds: 2.20 +6.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Agropecuario

0.75

SM Tucuman

1.05

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 76%

BTTS/No 66%

Score Hit 74%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)