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AC Milan vs Juventus Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:45

AC Milan

PPG 1.94 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Juventus

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.4%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.3%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 34.7% 2.88 +10.3%

Draw 33.1% 32.3% 3.10 +2.6%

Away win 28.6% 40.0% 2.50 -28.5%

Over 2.5 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Over 3.5 18.9% 29.0% 3.45 -34.8%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan1.3

Juventus1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN · PPG 1.94

JUVENTUS · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +10.3%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.6%

Juventus (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan face Juventus in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Juventus 29%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AC Milan and 1.0 for Juventus (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.69 for Juventus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 0-0.

AC Milan vs Juventus Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions