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Chacarita J. vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:30

Chacarita J.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Midland

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-111.2%0-24.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.9%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.4%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 46.5% 2.15 -9.5%

Draw 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

Away win 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.0%

Over 2.5 38.0% 36.4% 2.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 12.7% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 44.4% 2.25 +11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–0✓ 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita J.1.2

Midland0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA J. · PPG 1.40

MIDLAND · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita J. (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.5%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -6.2%

Midland (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita J. face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita J. a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Midland 26%, so Chacarita J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chacarita J. and 0.8 for Midland (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita J. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.25 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Chacarita J. vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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