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Acassuso vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:30

Acassuso

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 30.8% — a clear edge.

+71.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-16.4%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-19.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-16.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.0%3-13.3%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 30.8% 3.25 +71.3%

Draw 30.2% 38.2% 2.62 -20.9%

Away win 17.1% 40.8% 2.45 -58.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 32.3% 3.10 +17.8%

Over 3.5 12.1% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 43.5% 2.30 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 2–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso1.5

CA Estudiantes0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.50

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 52.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +71.3%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.9%

CA Estudiantes (A) 17.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face CA Estudiantes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 53% chance, the draw 30% and CA Estudiantes 17%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Acassuso and 0.4 for CA Estudiantes (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for CA Estudiantes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +71.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Acassuso vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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