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Bravo vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:15

Bravo

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maribor

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.9%0-26.6%0-34.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-35.9%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +4.0%

Draw 29.4% 28.2% 3.55 +4.4%

Away win 40.9% 52.1% 1.92 -21.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Over 3.5 42.5% 41.7% 2.40 +2.0%

BTTS 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bravo1.4

Maribor1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAVO · PPG 1.64

MARIBOR · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Bravo (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +4.0%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +4.4%

Maribor (A) 40.9%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bravo face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bravo a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Maribor 41%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bravo and 1.9 for Maribor (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bravo are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Maribor. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Bravo vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions