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Cusco vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:15

Cusco

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+15.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.8%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.3%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 50.8% 1.97 -0.7%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.7%

Away win 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -8.1%

Over 2.5 59.2% 51.3% 1.95 +15.4%

Over 3.5 43.1% 29.4% 3.40 +46.5%

BTTS 58.5% 57.8% 1.73 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco2.2

Sport Huancayo1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.00

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -0.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.7%

Sport Huancayo (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Sport Huancayo 25%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cusco and 1.1 for Sport Huancayo (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Cusco vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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