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Tristan Suarez vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+53.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-11.5%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.6%1-13.2%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-022.9%2-13.6%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.9%3-12.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% 46.5% 2.15 +53.1%

Draw 21.7% 38.2% 2.62 -43.1%

Away win 7.2% 25.3% 3.95 -71.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 31.3% 3.20 +60.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% — — —

BTTS 29.7% 41.7% 2.40 -28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob29.7%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.2 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 22.9%

#2 1–0 20.6%

#3 3–0 16.9%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 4–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez2.2

Gimnasia y Tiro0.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.80

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 71.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +53.1%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -43.1%

Gimnasia y Tiro (A) 7.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -71.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 71% chance, the draw 22% and Gimnasia y Tiro 7%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tristan Suarez and 0.2 for Gimnasia y Tiro (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Tristan Suarez vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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