← Back to picks

Tristan Suarez vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional logo Argentina flag Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 11 Estadio 20 de Octubre· Tristan Suarez Sunday, April 26, 2026 18:00
Tristan Suarez logo Tristan Suarez PPG 1.80
2-1 MISS
Gimnasia y Tiro logo Gimnasia y Tiro PPG 1.00
Over2.5· +60.0% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 71% chance, the draw 22% and Gimnasia y Tiro 7%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tristan Suarez and 0.2 for Gimnasia y Tiro (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 71.2%
Odds: 2.15 EV: +53.1%
Draw 21.7%
Odds: 2.62 EV: -43.1%
Away 7.2%
Odds: 3.95 EV: -71.6%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 3.20 +60.0%
Over 3.5 21.6% Odds: —
BTTS 29.7% Odds: 2.40 -28.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 0-0
5th 4-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Tristan Suarez
2.22
Gimnasia y Tiro
0.16

Model Suggestion

Home +53.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over2.5(+60.0%)

League Track Record

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%
O2.5/Under 76%
BTTS/No 66%
Score Hit 74%
ROI 0.3%
Bet Hit 47% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org