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Nueva Chicago vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:00

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Colegiales

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+44.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-11.3%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.7%1-13.6%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.8%2-15.1%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.7%3-14.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-023.4%4+-16.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.1% 50.0% 2.00 +44.2%

Draw 20.8% 37.7% 2.65 -44.9%

Away win 7.1% 23.1% 4.33 -69.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% 32.3% 3.10 +82.9%

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 41.7% 2.40 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 72% / xG 2.8-0.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.8%

#2 3–0 16.7%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 4–0 11.8%

#5 5–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago2.8

Colegiales0.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.50

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 72.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +44.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -44.9%

Colegiales (A) 7.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -69.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Colegiales 7%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Nueva Chicago and 0.3 for Colegiales (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.00 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +82.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Nueva Chicago vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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