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Deportivo Moron vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Racing Cordoba

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 71.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+31.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-12.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-15.3%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-17.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.2%3-16.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-17.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.1% 54.1% 1.85 +31.5%

Draw 21.1% 37.0% 2.70 -43.0%

Away win 7.8% 19.0% 5.25 -59.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 29.9% 3.35 +97.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% — — —

BTTS 48.3% 37.7% 2.65 +28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob48.3%

H 71% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 3–0 14.2%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 4–0 9.4%

#5 2–1✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron2.6

Racing Cordoba0.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.60

RACING CORDOBA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 71.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +31.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -43.0%

Racing Cordoba (A) 7.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -59.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Racing Cordoba in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Racing Cordoba 8%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Deportivo Moron and 0.4 for Racing Cordoba (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Racing Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +97.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Deportivo Moron vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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