Al Wahda vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Regular Season - 31 King Abdul Aziz Stadium· Mecca Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:25

Al Wahda PPG 1.53

2-2 MISS

Al Arabi PPG 0.40

Draw· +0.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wahda face Al Arabi in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wahda a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Al Arabi 16%, so Al Wahda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al Wahda and 0.7 for Al Arabi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wahda are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.40 for Al Arabi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%

Odds: 1.57 EV: -7.1%

Draw 24.4%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +0.0%

Away 16.4%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -24.6%

Model lean: Home ✘ Miss Not tracked as an official bet.

1X2 pick: Home → Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.50 -11.5%

Over 3.5 32.4% Odds: 2.30 -25.5%

BTTS 49.6% Odds: 1.55 -23.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Wahda

2.21

Al Arabi

0.66

Model SuggestionHome -7.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -7.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+0.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 67%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 58% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=59.2%