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Al Wahda vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:25

Al Wahda

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Arabi

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.7%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.3%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-16.7%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-16.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 63.7% 1.57 -7.1%

Draw 24.4% 24.4% 4.10 +0.0%

Away win 16.4% 21.7% 4.60 -24.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

Over 3.5 32.4% 43.5% 2.30 -25.5%

BTTS 49.6% 64.5% 1.55 -23.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wahda2.2

Al Arabi0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WAHDA · PPG 1.53

AL ARABI · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Al Wahda (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.0%

Al Arabi (A) 16.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wahda face Al Arabi in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wahda a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Al Arabi 16%, so Al Wahda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al Wahda and 0.7 for Al Arabi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wahda are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.40 for Al Arabi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Wahda vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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