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Yacoub El Manso vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Yacoub El Manso

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FAR Rabat

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

Away 65% chance

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-122.2%0-219.3%0-311.2%0-4+7.2%1 1-04.1%1-17.1%1-26.1%1-33.6%1-4+2.3%2 2-00.6%2-11.1%2-21.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.4% 16.7% 6.00 -49.6%

Draw 29.3% 27.4% 3.65 +7.0%

Away win 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Over 2.5 44.4% 47.6% 2.10 -6.8%

Over 3.5 15.3% 27.0% 3.70 -43.4%

BTTS 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob39.6%

A 62% / xG 0.3-1.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 22.2%

#2 0–2 19.3%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 0–3 11.2%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yacoub El Manso0.3

FAR Rabat1.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

YACOUB EL MANSO · PPG 0.57

FAR RABAT · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

65%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Yacoub El Manso (H) 8.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -49.6%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +7.0%

FAR Rabat (A) 62.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yacoub El Manso face FAR Rabat in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yacoub El Manso a 8% chance, the draw 29% and FAR Rabat 62%, so FAR Rabat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Yacoub El Manso and 1.7 for FAR Rabat (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yacoub El Manso are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.86 for FAR Rabat. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Yacoub El Manso vs FAR Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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