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Raja Casablanca vs FUS Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Raja Casablanca

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FUS Rabat

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-12.7%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-14.8%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-022.0%2-14.2%2-20.4%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.1%3-12.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.1% 54.1% 1.85 +24.1%

Draw 25.4% 33.3% 3.00 -23.8%

Away win 7.5% 23.8% 4.20 -68.5%

Over 2.5 38.0% 38.5% 2.60 -1.2%

Over 3.5 13.7% 21.1% 4.75 -34.9%

BTTS 29.7% 46.5% 2.15 -36.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob29.7%

H 67% / xG 1.8-0.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.8%

#2 2–0 22.0%

#3 0–0 13.9%

#4 3–0 13.1%

#5 4–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raja Casablanca1.8

FUS Rabat0.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RAJA CASABLANCA · PPG 2.25

FUS RABAT · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Raja Casablanca (H) 67.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +24.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -23.8%

FUS Rabat (A) 7.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -68.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raja Casablanca face FUS Rabat in Morocco - Botola Pro on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raja Casablanca a 67% chance, the draw 25% and FUS Rabat 8%, so Raja Casablanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Raja Casablanca and 0.2 for FUS Rabat (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raja Casablanca are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.88 for FUS Rabat. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Raja Casablanca vs FUS Rabat Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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