Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 32 Stadion Maksimir· Zagreb Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:45

Dinamo Zagreb PPG 2.53

2-1 HIT CS5

Varazdin PPG 1.20

Away· +28.8% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Varazdin 9%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.7 for Varazdin (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.2%

Odds: 1.19 EV: -16.5%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 5.60 EV: +15.4%

Away 9.2%

Odds: 14.00 EV: +28.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.48 -10.5%

Over 3.5 53.0% Odds: 2.15 +14.0%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.95 +2.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Dinamo Zagreb

3.10

Varazdin

0.72

Model SuggestionHome -16.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-16.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.53), Away AVERAGE (1.20) - Strong consensus