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Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:45

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Varazdin

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-14.9%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-17.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.8%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.3%4+-113.1%4+-24.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% 84.0% 1.19 -16.5%

Draw 20.6% 17.9% 5.60 +15.4%

Away win 9.2% 7.1% 14.00 +28.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 67.6% 1.48 -10.5%

Over 3.5 53.0% 46.5% 2.15 +14.0%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 70% / xG 3.1-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 4–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb3.1

Varazdin0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.53

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.53), Away AVERAGE (1.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 70.2%

ODDS 1.19 · IMPLIED 84.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +15.4%

Varazdin (A) 9.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Varazdin 9%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.7 for Varazdin (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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