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Recoleta vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:30

Recoleta

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Antofagasta

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+53.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.7%0-22.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-01.8%1-14.3%1-25.3%1-34.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.6%2-35.4%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.9%3-14.5%3-25.6%3-34.5%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-15.2%4+-26.4%4+-35.2%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 37.7% 2.65 +4.4%

Draw 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Away win 34.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

Over 2.5 79.5% 51.8% 1.93 +53.4%

Over 3.5 73.0% 29.9% 3.35 +144.6%

BTTS 65.5% 58.8% 1.70 +11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob65.5%

H 39% / xG 2.5-2.4 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 3–2 5.6%

#3 2–1 5.4%

#4 2–3 5.4%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta2.5

Antofagasta2.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 73.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.75

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +4.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Antofagasta (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Antofagasta in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Antofagasta 35%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Recoleta and 2.4 for Antofagasta (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +144.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Recoleta vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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