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Huesca vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:30

Huesca

PPG 1.39 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Zaragoza

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.8%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 38.5% 2.60 +9.5%

Draw 31.8% 34.2% 2.92 -7.1%

Away win 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -24.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 18.9% 23.8% 4.20 -20.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0✓ 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huesca1.3

Real Zaragoza0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HUESCA · PPG 1.39

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Huesca (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +9.5%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -7.1%

Real Zaragoza (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huesca face Real Zaragoza in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huesca a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Real Zaragoza 26%, so Huesca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Huesca and 0.9 for Real Zaragoza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huesca are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.94 for Real Zaragoza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Huesca vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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