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Cartagena vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:15

Cartagena

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimnastic T.

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-16.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-110.3%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-15.0%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Draw 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

Away win 18.4% 23.8% 4.20 -22.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.4%

BTTS 49.5% 51.8% 1.93 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.8%

#2 2–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cartagena1.7

Gimnastic T.0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CARTAGENA · PPG 1.94

GIMNASTIC T. · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Cartagena (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.0%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.6%

Gimnastic T. (A) 18.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cartagena face Gimnastic T. in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cartagena a 52% chance, the draw 30% and Gimnastic T. 18%, so Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cartagena and 0.6 for Gimnastic T. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cartagena are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.81 for Gimnastic T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Cartagena vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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