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Abha vs Al Batin Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:10

Abha

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Batin

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-14.0%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.0%2-16.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.3%3-22.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.0%4+-113.8%4+-24.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 80.0% 1.25 -10.5%

Draw 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +5.0%

Away win 7.4% 10.6% 9.40 -30.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 70.4% 1.42 -14.1%

Over 3.5 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

BTTS 49.5% 58.8% 1.70 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 72% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.1%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 4–0 10.0%

#4 3–1✓ 7.3%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abha3.3

Al Batin0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ABHA · PPG 2.40

AL BATIN · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.47) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Abha (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.0%

Al Batin (A) 7.4%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Abha face Al Batin in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abha a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Al Batin 7%, so Abha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Abha and 0.6 for Al Batin (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abha are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.47 for Al Batin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Abha vs Al Batin Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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