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Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Cajamarca

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cienciano

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.4%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.1%1-17.4%1-26.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.8%3-25.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 44.2% 2.26 +3.5%

Draw 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -8.6%

Away win 27.7% 33.8% 2.96 -18.0%

Over 2.5 61.1% 54.6% 1.83 +11.8%

Over 3.5 56.1% 32.3% 3.10 +73.9%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2✓ 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cajamarca2.2

Cienciano1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.60

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Cajamarca (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +3.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.6%

Cienciano (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cajamarca face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cajamarca a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Cienciano 28%, so Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cajamarca and 1.8 for Cienciano (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cajamarca are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +73.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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