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Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Cajamarca

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cienciano

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.4%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.1%1-17.4%1-26.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.8%3-25.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 44.2% 2.26 +3.5%

Draw 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -8.6%

Away win 27.7% 33.8% 2.96 -18.0%

Over 2.5 61.1% 54.6% 1.83 +11.8%

Over 3.5 56.1% 32.3% 3.10 +73.9%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2✓ 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cajamarca2.2

Cienciano1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.60

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Cajamarca (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +3.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.6%

Cienciano (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cajamarca face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cajamarca a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Cienciano 28%, so Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cajamarca and 1.8 for Cienciano (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cajamarca are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +73.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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