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Ternana W vs Fiorentina W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Ternana W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fiorentina W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.8%0-28.2%0-34.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.6%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 25.0% 4.00 +15.2%

Draw 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.7%

Away win 41.5% 57.1% 1.75 -27.4%

Over 2.5 58.0% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 57.8% 1.73 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ternana W1.2

Fiorentina W1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TERNANA W · PPG 1.00

FIORENTINA W · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Ternana W (H) 28.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +15.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.7%

Fiorentina W (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ternana W face Fiorentina W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ternana W a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Fiorentina W 42%, so Fiorentina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ternana W and 1.7 for Fiorentina W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ternana W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Fiorentina W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Ternana W vs Fiorentina W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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