Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / A. Cerignola vs Altamura

A. Cerignola vs Altamura Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

A. Cerignola

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Altamura

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.5%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.3%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 62.5% 1.60 +1.4%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -21.2%

Away win 14.7% 19.6% 5.10 -25.0%

Over 2.5 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Over 3.5 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -16.9%

BTTS 45.0% 55.6% 1.80 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.0%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1✓ 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Cerignola1.9

Altamura0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

A. CERIGNOLA · PPG 1.67

ALTAMURA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

A. Cerignola (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +1.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.2%

Altamura (A) 14.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Cerignola face Altamura in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Cerignola a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Altamura 15%, so A. Cerignola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for A. Cerignola and 0.8 for Altamura (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Cerignola are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.11 for Altamura. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

A. Cerignola vs Altamura Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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