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Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern logo Germany flag Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern Bayern - 29 SMR-Arena· Buchbach Friday, April 17, 2026 17:00
Buchbach logo Buchbach PPG 1.57
0-3 MISS
Illertissen logo Illertissen PPG 1.93
Over3.5· +54.5% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away
65% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 22.3%
Odds: 2.65 EV: -40.9%
Draw 17.9%
Odds: 3.70 EV: -33.8%
Away 59.9%
Odds: 2.20 EV: +31.8%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 80.0% Odds: 1.60 +28.0%
Over 3.5 61.8% Odds: 2.50 +54.5%
BTTS 74.6% Odds: 1.50 +11.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2
2nd 1-3
3rd 2-2
4th 1-1
5th 2-3

Expected Goals (xG)

Buchbach
1.62
Illertissen
2.66

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +28.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+54.5%)

League Track Record

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%
O2.5/Under 59%
BTTS/No 51%
Score Hit 28%
ROI -0.4%
Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away
65%
DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away GOOD (1.93)

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