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Buchbach vs Illertissen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Buchbach

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Illertissen

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+28.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.7%0-24.9%0-34.3%0-4+5.5%1 1-02.3%1-16.0%1-27.9%1-37.0%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.4%2-35.7%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.5%3-33.1%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 37.7% 2.65 -40.9%

Draw 17.9% 27.0% 3.70 -33.8%

Away win 59.9% 45.5% 2.20 +31.8%

Over 2.5 80.0% 62.5% 1.60 +28.0%

Over 3.5 61.8% 40.0% 2.50 +54.5%

BTTS 74.6% 66.7% 1.50 +11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob74.6%

A 60% / xG 1.6-2.7 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.9%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.4%

#4 1–1 6.0%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchbach1.6

Illertissen2.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 61.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.57

ILLERTISSEN · PPG 1.93

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Buchbach (H) 22.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -40.9%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -33.8%

Illertissen (A) 59.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchbach face Illertissen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchbach a 22% chance, the draw 18% and Illertissen 60%, so Illertissen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Buchbach and 2.7 for Illertissen (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchbach are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.93 for Illertissen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Buchbach vs Illertissen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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