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Torino vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Torino

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Inter Milan

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

Away 68% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.4%0-29.6%0-38.2%0-4+9.8%1 1-02.8%1-17.2%1-29.3%1-38.0%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.4%2-13.5%2-24.5%2-33.9%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.5%3-31.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 14.1% 7.10 +5.1%

Draw 22.7% 22.0% 4.55 +3.3%

Away win 62.5% 70.9% 1.41 -11.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 3.5 47.4% 41.7% 2.40 +13.8%

BTTS 58.5% 57.1% 1.75 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob58.5%

A 62% / xG 1.0-2.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 0–3 8.2%

#5 1–3 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torino1.0

Inter Milan2.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TORINO · PPG 1.44

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

68%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Torino (H) 14.8%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +3.3%

Inter Milan (A) 62.5%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torino face Inter Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torino a 15% chance, the draw 23% and Inter Milan 63%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Torino and 2.6 for Inter Milan (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torino are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.31 for Inter Milan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Torino vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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