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Al Jubail vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:45

Al Jubail

PPG 0.87 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Diraiyah

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 71.9% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-16.0%0-210.1%0-311.3%0-4+22.5%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.7%1-37.5%1-4+14.8%2 2-00.4%2-11.3%2-22.2%2-32.5%2-4+4.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% 7.1% 14.00 -37.0%

Draw 23.6% 16.7% 6.00 +41.6%

Away win 71.9% 87.0% 1.15 -17.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 72.5% 1.38 -15.5%

Over 3.5 57.2% 51.3% 1.95 +11.5%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 72% / xG 0.7-3.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.3%

#2 0–2 10.1%

#3 0–4 9.6%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 1–2✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jubail0.7

Al Diraiyah3.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 57.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.87

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 1.73

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jubail (H) 4.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV -37.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +41.6%

Al Diraiyah (A) 71.9%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jubail face Al Diraiyah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jubail a 5% chance, the draw 24% and Al Diraiyah 72%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Al Jubail and 3.4 for Al Diraiyah (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jubail are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.73 for Al Diraiyah. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Jubail vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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