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NK Celje vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:30

NK Celje

PPG 2.57 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Aluminij

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-14.9%1-22.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-113.9%4+-25.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.8% 81.3% 1.23 -14.1%

Draw 20.9% 18.2% 5.50 +14.9%

Away win 9.3% 9.8% 10.25 -4.7%

Over 2.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Over 3.5 56.1% 52.6% 1.90 +6.6%

BTTS 57.8% 60.6% 1.65 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob57.8%

H 70% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Celje3.1

Aluminij0.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NK CELJE · PPG 2.57

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away AVERAGE (1.21) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

NK Celje (H) 69.8%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -14.1%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.9%

Aluminij (A) 9.3%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Celje face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Celje a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Aluminij 9%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for NK Celje and 0.8 for Aluminij (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Celje are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.21 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 5-0.

NK Celje vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions