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Bayreuth vs Vilzing Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Bayreuth

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Vilzing

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-113.3%0-29.5%0-34.6%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.1%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 42.0% 2.38 -41.0%

Draw 26.8% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Away win 48.4% 39.2% 2.55 +23.4%

Over 2.5 42.3% 56.5% 1.77 -25.1%

Over 3.5 21.6% 33.3% 3.00 -35.2%

BTTS 46.4% 61.7% 1.62 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.4%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayreuth0.9

Vilzing1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYREUTH · PPG 1.43

VILZING · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Bayreuth (H) 24.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -41.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Vilzing (A) 48.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayreuth face Vilzing in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayreuth a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Vilzing 48%, so Vilzing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bayreuth and 1.4 for Vilzing (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayreuth are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Vilzing. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Bayreuth vs Vilzing Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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