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Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:30

Hibernian

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hearts

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.0%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.6%1-112.4%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 37.3% 2.68 +2.1%

Draw 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away win 29.8% 39.2% 2.55 -24.0%

Over 2.5 51.2% 52.6% 1.90 -2.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 30.8% 3.25 -10.0%

BTTS 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.4%

D 32% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–2✓ 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian1.4

Hearts1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.88

HEARTS · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +2.1%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.3%

Hearts (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian face Hearts in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Hearts 30%, so Hibernian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hibernian and 1.3 for Hearts (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.69 for Hearts. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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